Paul Graham wrote an interesting article proposing that Hollywood, as well as the TV industry, is in decline. This article is largely fueled by the recent, but not yet failed, attempts to get the largely ignorant congressional whores in Washington to pass SOPA and protect IP. (Whores? Yes, because congress’s services are bought by money. They sell themselves to the highest bidder able to funnel money into their campaigns to keep them in power. In turn, they pass legislation favoring those purchasing their services.)
In his article, he suggests that technology advancements will be the inevitable downfall of this particular industry. It is not a matter of if, but of when.
My question is the following: could Hollywood actually survive? Could they somehow adapt, break free of their current business model, and morph into an equally successful, but different, business model. I am doubtful.
The business community is littered with those companies/industries that could not: Kodak, Polaroid, DEC, Microsoft (Not dead, but largely failing to adapt as the industry has moved forward), etc. Each of these companies was wed to a specific business model fueled by large profit margines. As the industries around them changed, the idea of a smaller profit margin, made up by larger volumes, was something that could not be comprehended (This is a gross simplification, but in general, applicable to each company outlined.)
Hollywood is certainly in a similar bind. Technology, as well as people’s wants and desires, have changed. People want more options, more channels for entertainment and escapism.
As an example: Movie theaters. There is no doubt that the large screen experience is very rewarding, but the cost, inconvenience, and limited choices dictate that people will look elsewhere. People no longer want to wait until a specific show time, but instead want to watch when it is convenient for them. Given where technology is going, with all of the possibilities, movie theaters are now an anachronism. People want choice, and choices are all around them. Games, online social experiences, streaming video, to name a few.
Hollywood will do everything it can to continue milking their current business model as long as those in charge cling to their old ways. Without an infusion of new thinking, they will continue to bribe, lie, cheat, steal, and destroy our civil liberties without pause as long as they believe there are no options available.
Can the tech industry speed up their demise, as suggested by Paul Graham? Yes, but do not kid yourself that Hollywood will go quietly. Wounded animals tend to be far more dangerous.